Market Outlook & Predictions
Top Rolexes to Buy Before 2026: A Price Outlook
Will Rolex prices rise or fall in 2026? What drives them, our outlook by category, the models we’d look at first, and why pre-owned often makes sense.
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Buying a Rolex is partly about style and partly about understanding demand. This guide, first written in December 2025, lays out what shapes Rolex prices heading into 2026 and the models we’d look at first. It’s based on what we were seeing in the market at the time.
What drives Rolex prices
Supply and demand
Rolex controls production tightly and doesn’t raise output quickly. Even after the hype cooled, demand still exceeds supply for most steel sports models.
The wider economy
Luxury spending follows economic stability, so interest rates and inflation matter. Rolex has historically held up better than most luxury goods in slowdowns.
Collector taste
Collectors are moving away from short-lived hype pieces and back to the classics: Submariner, GMT-Master II, Datejust and Daytona. Demand for these core references remains strong.
Discontinued models
Watches Rolex discontinues have often risen in value in the 12 to 24 months that follow, as supply freezes. It’s a pattern, not a promise.
Will prices go up or down?
Our view at the time of writing: mostly stable in 2026, with modest increases in high-demand steel sports models and discontinued pieces. Hype is gone and the market runs on real demand, not flippers. We didn’t expect big spikes, and we didn’t expect a crash.
| Category | Examples | 2025 trend | Our 2026 outlook | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry level | Oyster Perpetual, simple Datejust | Stable | Small, gradual increases | Inflation and steady global demand |
| Steel sports | Submariner, GMT-Master II, Daytona | High demand | +2 to 5% upside expected | Strongest collector interest, hardest to get at retail |
| Popular Datejust | Wimbledon, blue dial, fluted and Jubilee | Growing interest | Mild upside | Versatile daily wear |
| Discontinued | Short-run dials, retired references | Rising | +10 to 25% over 1 to 2 years | Frozen supply plus collector demand |
| Precious metal and two-tone | Rolesor, full gold | More niche | Mostly stable | Depends on gold prices |
These are predictions based on trends at the time, not guarantees. Prices can move either way.
The models we’d look at first
- Submariner: the foundation piece. Highest demand and steady premium pricing.
- GMT-Master II: a global icon. The “Pepsi” and “Batman” have performed strongly.
- Datejust: very easy to sell, a great first Rolex, and a wide range of styles.
- A recently discontinued model: scarcity often helps over the long term. Look at 2024 and 2025 retirements.
New or pre-owned?
For most buyers, pre-owned is the smarter route unless you specifically want the full warranty or the boutique experience.
| New (retail) | Pre-owned | |
|---|---|---|
| Pros | Full warranty, first owner, perfect condition | Available now, access to discontinued pieces, often closer to market value |
| Cons | Hard to get, long waitlists | Condition varies, less warranty left, must be checked carefully |
At Good Times Luxury, every watch is checked before it’s listed and priced on real market demand, not hype.
The sensible approach
The most realistic outlook is steadiness. Prices aren’t expected to explode the way they did in the 2020 to 2022 hype cycle, and they aren’t expected to collapse. Prices fell after 2022 because the bubble corrected; today they rest more on real demand, which is healthier.
- Choose a classic model.
- Pay a fair market price.
- Focus on condition and authenticity.
- Don’t chase hype.
- Think medium to long term.