Market Outlook & Predictions
Rolex Price Predictions 2026: Which Models Could Rise Most?
Our late-2025 Rolex outlook for 2026: what drives prices by model family, where steel sports, Datejust and discontinued references stand, and how to buy well.
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In a calmer market after the bubble, collectors and first-time buyers want to know which Rolex models are most likely to rise next. This guide gives our view from late 2025, based on what we see in day-to-day buying and selling rather than on social media. It covers the core steel sports models, the most wanted Datejust configurations and recently discontinued references.
For what’s in demand right now, see our top 5 Rolexes. For the wider market, WatchCharts market reports track how Rolex prices are trending.
The short version
- Steel sports models (Submariner, GMT-Master II, Daytona) have the most upside.
- Well-specified Datejusts (Wimbledon, blue dial, fluted bezel on Jubilee) resell easily and rise steadily.
- Recently discontinued references often climb over the following one to two years because supply is fixed.
- Entry-level pieces like the Oyster Perpetual should stay stable with mild growth.
- Overall we expect gradual growth, not another bubble.
What decides which models rise
Supply and demand by model family. Rolex does not flood the market with Submariners or GMT-Master IIs. Steel sports production is tightly controlled and demand keeps outpacing supply, so these models have more upside than dressier or niche pieces.
The economy and luxury spending. When the wider economy steadies or improves, luxury spending usually follows. The core icons move first, because buyers see them as safer places to hold value.
What collectors want. Collectors are moving away from short-lived hype and back to classic, versatile pieces: the black or green Submariner, classic GMT-Master II references and well-balanced Datejusts. The models that rise tend to be the ones that will still look right in 20 years.
Discontinuations. When Rolex quietly retires a reference, its price tends to climb over the next 12 to 24 months. Watch any steel sports models and popular Datejust dials retired around 2024 and 2025.
Our outlook by category
This was our view in December 2025. Use it as a guide, not a guarantee.
| Category | Examples | Trend in 2025 | Outlook for 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry level | Oyster Perpetual, simple Datejust | Stable | Mild upside, slow and steady |
| Steel sports | Submariner, GMT-Master II, Daytona | High demand | The most upside, from tight supply and global demand |
| Popular Datejust specs | Wimbledon, blue dial, fluted bezel and Jubilee | Growing interest | Steady upside; easy to resell |
| Discontinued references | Short-run dials, retired references | Rising | Often the biggest movers over one to two years |
| Precious metal and two-tone | Rolesor and full gold | More niche | Mixed, mostly stable; tied to gold prices and local economies |
Models to know
Submariner. The backbone of many Rolex collections and a core piece in almost every serious outlook.
GMT-Master II. The “Pepsi”, the “Batman” and the other variations are global icons. Limited availability and strong recognition support their prices.
Datejust. The most versatile daily Rolex. Classic configurations, especially a fluted bezel on a Jubilee with a classic dial, hold value well.
Recently discontinued references. If you can spot the models Rolex quietly retires, they are often the hidden movers. Supply is capped for good while collector attention builds.
New or pre-owned?
New at retail gets you the full warranty, first ownership and perfect condition. The most wanted models are hard to get at retail, and waitlists are long.
Pre-owned gets you high-demand models now, including discontinued references, at prices closer to real market value. You need to check condition carefully, and warranty coverage varies.
For most buyers who care about both enjoyment and value, pre-owned is the smarter route. At Good Times Luxury, every watch is checked before it is listed and priced on real demand.
Buying sensibly
- Focus on classic models with deep global demand.
- Buy at fair market value from a dealer you trust.
- Prioritize condition and complete sets.
- Think in three-to-seven-year horizons, not months.
Should you wait for prices to drop? The most wanted models are unlikely to get much cheaper. Rather than trying to time the bottom, buy a great example of a great model at a fair price and enjoy wearing it. These are estimates, not financial advice.